This is a good spot to back the Jaguars coming off the Texans’ win over the Titans, which started a rookie quarterback, last week. There’s no question that Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne are finally starting to gel with some explosive playmaking, and Jacksonville must be seething at the way it played against Houston in one of the Texans’ two wins earlier this season. This would be much more palatable at -3, but given the Jaguars’ momentum, it’s possible that this is more decisive than expected. This is a half-unit wager given the hook, though a full unit would come if it hits -3 before kickoff.

Set aside the fact that Houston has taken nine in a row straight-up in this series. Or that in the last meeting, the Jaguars scored six points. Or that Jacksonville is 0-3 ATS this season as a favorite. Those are the trees. Here is the forest: The Jags are afire, with three outright wins consecutively and four in the past five while the Texans own just two Ws all year. Plus, QB Trevor Lawrence enjoyed a stretch before encountering awful weather last week in which he tossed 15 TD passes and just one interception over a six-game stretch. Sunday's forecast: clear skies, 70-ish temperatures.

The Texans should be motivated to win their final home game of the season as they are 0-6-1 in Houston. They have a good chance to keep this one close. Houston is ranked eighth in opponent passer rating, second in special teams and 20th in overall defense. Jacksonville is No. 20 in opponent passer rating, No. 29 in third-down defense and No. 27 in overall defense at Football Outsiders. Trevor Lawrence did not practice on Wednesday due to a toe injury. He's going to play, but I would expect the Jaguars to be cautious as they have their biggest game of the season for the division title next week. Houston is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Take the Texans and the points.

This is a terrible spot for the Jaguars, even though Doug Pederson says he won’t rest any starters. It’s the fourth road game in five weeks for a Jacksonville team with a massive showdown on deck next week vs. Tennessee. That game will decide the AFC South title. Jacksonville has lost all three games in which it has been favored this season, including the earlier meeting with Houston. Davis Mills should have some success against a Jags defense missing key pieces, while Trevor Lawrence could struggle — like he typically does — against Houston’s Cover 2 scheme. Grab the points.

The Texans finally broke through win a win against Tennessee after two close calls against top-tier teams, but that was a bad weather game with a bad passing QB at the helm. The Jaguars offense can both run and pass well, and it has been hot in recent weeks, even scoring 19 in bad weather against an elite D on short rest on the road last week. The lookahead line here was Jaguars -5.5, and this adjustment downward likely covers the possibility the Jaguars rest players. Starters could also rest part of the game, so playing Jacksonville's first half line may be the move. If Tennessee somehow wins on Thursday, this matters more for Jacksonville, who then can't risk a Week 18 tie.